In last week's episode of Cleaning Up, my co-host Bryony Worthington sat down with Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, Founder and Chair of Fortescue - self-made iron ore billionaire and hydrogen evangelist
I really enjoyed this conversation that was lively and broad ranging as billed. Having followed the podcast for years now, I’ve come to share the reservations on the potential role of hydrogen in the energy transition. But I found this was a really good episode for challenging your preconceptions and I’m aware that it’s all too easy to become too tribal and to fail to recognise the advances being made in those technologies you might have written off. Exciting to hear about the advances in electrolyser technology and ultimately it’s hard to discount the views of someone who’s willing to “put their money where their mouth is”.
Another really thought provoking episode which for me has become the hallmark of the series.
Thanks for that critical piece of information. Speaks volumes. I do hope that some of the positive developments he spoke about come to fruition and know we’ll be kept up to date on progress in future podcast episodes.
Pioneer or fantasist? Perhaps both, if you look beyond hydrogen to Forrest's significant achievements with electrification. Consider his acquisition of WAE. Its world-leading battery control systems. Its ultra-fast charging for battery/electric mine equipment. Look, too, to Fortescue's deals with Liebherr and XCMG ... and to the big wind and solar from Forrest's Squadron Energy.
Hydrogen's a bit puzzling. It's not as if Forrest is incapable of pivoting. Not too far back hydrogen was considered the only possible pathway to carbon-free mining ... but at a significant premium to fossil fuels. Fortescue's pivot to electrification - battery/electric with behind-the-meter renewables - will deliver decarbonisation with big operational savings.
Of course, if a market for green iron emerges Forrest will need a vast amount of green hydrogen, made and used in situ (unless direct electrochemical reduction becomes a thing ... but Forrest's invested in that as well). As for the 95% efficient electrolyser ... ok, let's see. But he's also invested in a start-up that's pursuing photocatalytic water splitting, so as to decouple the cost of green hydrogen from green electrons.
What's more, I note that the prototype of Forrest's battery/electric 'infinity' train has arrived in the Pilbara. Given that his existing locomotives burn through ~80 million litres of diesel per year hauling iron ore from mine to port the potential for operational savings is immense, regardless of the percentage of electrons provided by regenerative braking.
Thanks for the episode - makes me think that Forrest’s bold bet on green hydrogen reminds us that every major transition starts with someone willing to push boundaries—> long before the economics fall neatly into place.
That’s what he wants you to think. But he has a problem with the economics of hydrogen, even if he has an electrolyzer with 95% efficiency (I don’t think he does - one exists, Hysata, but he doesn’t own it).
Every $1/kg that green hydrogen costs more than grey requires $100 billion per year in financial support - or $1.5 trillion in up-front support if you actually want to build projects. Right now green hydrogen costs at least $3/kg too much, so that’s $4.5 trillion in up-front funding needed.
Even if Forrest can reduce the gap to $2/kg, he’s still $3 trillion short of driving a major transition.
I really enjoyed this conversation that was lively and broad ranging as billed. Having followed the podcast for years now, I’ve come to share the reservations on the potential role of hydrogen in the energy transition. But I found this was a really good episode for challenging your preconceptions and I’m aware that it’s all too easy to become too tribal and to fail to recognise the advances being made in those technologies you might have written off. Exciting to hear about the advances in electrolyser technology and ultimately it’s hard to discount the views of someone who’s willing to “put their money where their mouth is”.
Another really thought provoking episode which for me has become the hallmark of the series.
If Forrest’s green hydrogen is so economic, why can’t he get any of his projects to Final Investment Decision?
Thanks for that critical piece of information. Speaks volumes. I do hope that some of the positive developments he spoke about come to fruition and know we’ll be kept up to date on progress in future podcast episodes.
Pioneer or fantasist? Perhaps both, if you look beyond hydrogen to Forrest's significant achievements with electrification. Consider his acquisition of WAE. Its world-leading battery control systems. Its ultra-fast charging for battery/electric mine equipment. Look, too, to Fortescue's deals with Liebherr and XCMG ... and to the big wind and solar from Forrest's Squadron Energy.
Hydrogen's a bit puzzling. It's not as if Forrest is incapable of pivoting. Not too far back hydrogen was considered the only possible pathway to carbon-free mining ... but at a significant premium to fossil fuels. Fortescue's pivot to electrification - battery/electric with behind-the-meter renewables - will deliver decarbonisation with big operational savings.
Of course, if a market for green iron emerges Forrest will need a vast amount of green hydrogen, made and used in situ (unless direct electrochemical reduction becomes a thing ... but Forrest's invested in that as well). As for the 95% efficient electrolyser ... ok, let's see. But he's also invested in a start-up that's pursuing photocatalytic water splitting, so as to decouple the cost of green hydrogen from green electrons.
The fantasist appears to be spreading his bets.
What's more, I note that the prototype of Forrest's battery/electric 'infinity' train has arrived in the Pilbara. Given that his existing locomotives burn through ~80 million litres of diesel per year hauling iron ore from mine to port the potential for operational savings is immense, regardless of the percentage of electrons provided by regenerative braking.
Thanks for the episode - makes me think that Forrest’s bold bet on green hydrogen reminds us that every major transition starts with someone willing to push boundaries—> long before the economics fall neatly into place.
That’s what he wants you to think. But he has a problem with the economics of hydrogen, even if he has an electrolyzer with 95% efficiency (I don’t think he does - one exists, Hysata, but he doesn’t own it).
Every $1/kg that green hydrogen costs more than grey requires $100 billion per year in financial support - or $1.5 trillion in up-front support if you actually want to build projects. Right now green hydrogen costs at least $3/kg too much, so that’s $4.5 trillion in up-front funding needed.
Even if Forrest can reduce the gap to $2/kg, he’s still $3 trillion short of driving a major transition.